The group stage is coming to an end and we ran the simulations for those tricky third-place comparison situations, to see the probabilities of which teams will qualify.
Switzerland finished third in the group with four points and has a > 99% probability to qualify.
– A draw or better will allow Finland to qualify! However even a single goal loss might be enough, but does leave it hanging on other results. ~ 50% probability to qualify.
DEN-RUS (50-25-25) – Russia will qualify with a draw or better (50%) but losing will probably mean that they will not advance. Denmark winning will yield a three-way-tie where we have to go through the scores and still wait for the other groups results.
NED-MKD Nothing to play for, NED qualified, MKD will NOT participate in the knockout stage.
AUT-UKR (36-28-36) Draw or better is good for both. So prob > 64% for both. For the loser of the game, the goal difference will be negative. There’s also a slight chance that a small loss will be enough to advance and since Ukraine has a better goal difference to start with, they have a slightly better chance to a back-door qualification.
ENG-CZE Group win at stake. The loser might go into the goal difference comparison of third-place teams, but that would require England and Croatia winning, causing a tie between the Czechs and the Croatians or Scotland and Czechs winning, causing a tie between England and Scotland. And even then the third-place team is likely to succeed in qualifying, so >99% of both qualifying.
SCO-CRO (25-25-50) Both of the teams need a win to have a chance of qualifying, but with four points the winner should be ok in the comparison. A draw kills both of the teams, so Croatia has a 50% chance and Scotland a 25% chance.
ESP-SVK (62-21-17) Spain needs a win and Slovakia will qualify with a win or a draw. Even three points might be enough since the goal difference will be better than the third place finisher in group B.
SWE-POL (36-28-36) Poland needs a win while Sweden is already very likely to qualify with four points. Poland with a 36% probability, Sweden with 99%.
GER-HUN (58-22-20) Hungary needs to win to have a chance of qualifying. For Germany, a draw or a win means qualification, although a small loss might be enough also.
POR-FRA (30-25-45) France with four points is almost surely through. For Portugal, a draw or a win makes them qualify also, however three points might not be enough.
|Country||Winning probability at the start||Winning probability after first round||Winning probability now||Position changes|