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2021-06-21 by Jukka

UEFA Euro update 2

UEFA Euro update 2
2021-06-21 by Jukka
The group stage is coming to an end and we ran the simulations for those tricky third-place comparison situations, to see the probabilities of which teams will qualify.

Group A

Switzerland finished third in the group with four points and has a > 99% probability to qualify.

Qualification probabilities:

  • ITA qualified

  • WEL qualified

  • SUI 99%

  • TUR 0%

Group B

FIN-BEL (13-17-70)
– A draw or better will allow Finland to qualify! However even a single goal loss might be enough, but does leave it hanging on other results. ~ 50% probability to qualify.

DEN-RUS (50-25-25) – Russia will qualify with a draw or better (50%) but losing will probably mean that they will not advance. Denmark winning will yield a three-way-tie where we have to go through the scores and still wait for the other groups results.

Qualification probabilities:

  • BEL 100%

  • RUS 50%

  • FIN 50%

  • DEN 35%

Group C

NED-MKD Nothing to play for, NED qualified, MKD will NOT participate in the knockout stage.
AUT-UKR (36-28-36) Draw or better is good for both. So prob > 64% for both. For the loser of the game, the goal difference will be negative. There’s also a slight chance that a small loss will be enough to advance and since Ukraine has a better goal difference to start with, they have a slightly better chance to a back-door qualification.

Qualification probabilities:

  • NED 100%

  • UKR 72%

  • AUT 66%

  • MKD 0%

Group D

ENG-CZE Group win at stake. The loser might go into the goal difference comparison of third-place teams, but that would require England and Croatia winning, causing a tie between the Czechs and the Croatians or Scotland and Czechs winning, causing a tie between England and Scotland. And even then the third-place team is likely to succeed in qualifying, so >99% of both qualifying.
SCO-CRO (25-25-50) Both of the teams need a win to have a chance of qualifying, but with four points the winner should be ok in the comparison. A draw kills both of the teams, so Croatia has a 50% chance and Scotland a 25% chance.

Qualification probabilities:

  • ENG 99%

  • CZE 99%

  • CRO 50%

  • SCO 25%

Group E

ESP-SVK (62-21-17) Spain needs a win and Slovakia will qualify with a win or a draw. Even three points might be enough since the goal difference will be better than the third place finisher in group B.
SWE-POL (36-28-36) Poland needs a win while Sweden is already very likely to qualify with four points. Poland with a 36% probability, Sweden with 99%.

Qualification probabilities:

  • SWE 96%

  • ESP 72%

  • SVK 61%

  • POL 37%

Group F

GER-HUN (58-22-20) Hungary needs to win to have a chance of qualifying. For Germany, a draw or a win means qualification, although a small loss might be enough also.
POR-FRA (30-25-45) France with four points is almost surely through. For Portugal, a draw or a win makes them qualify also, however three points might not be enough.

Qualification probabilities:

  • FRA 99%

  • GER 86%

  • POR 77%

  • HUN 19%

Now

CountryWinning probability at the startWinning probability after first roundWinning probability nowPosition changes
BEL20,3920,7821,76 0
FRA15,0917,4416,83 0
ENG8,849,6710,00 0
ITA6,287,527,560
POR6,097,466,020
SUI4,454,295,74+1
SPA6,556,005,50-1
GER4,242,935,06+3
NED3,353,994,18-1
WAL3,022,904,14+1
CRO4,713,582,83-2
SWE2,142,062,72 +1
DEN4,822,701,92-1
UKR1,541,051,25+3
AUT1,511,921,13-1
POL2,121,161,080
CZE0,570,830,96 +2
RUS0,560,370,47+4
FIN0,310,570,33+2
SCO0,560,270,24+2
SVK0,901,330,20-6
HUN0,460,230,08+2
TUR1,310,860,00-5
MKD0,180,090,00 0

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