The group stage is coming to an end and we ran the simulations for those tricky third-place comparison situations, to see the probabilities of which teams will qualify.
Group A
Switzerland finished third in the group with four points and has a > 99% probability to qualify.
Qualification probabilities:
Group B
FIN-BEL (13-17-70)
– A draw or better will allow Finland to qualify! However even a single goal loss might be enough, but does leave it hanging on other results. ~ 50% probability to qualify.
DEN-RUS (50-25-25)
– Russia will qualify with a draw or better (50%) but losing will probably mean that they will not advance. Denmark winning will yield a three-way-tie where we have to go through the scores and still wait for the other groups results.
Qualification probabilities:
Group C
NED-MKD Nothing to play for, NED qualified, MKD will NOT participate in the knockout stage.
AUT-UKR (36-28-36)
Draw or better is good for both. So prob > 64% for both. For the loser of the game, the goal difference will be negative. There’s also a slight chance that a small loss will be enough to advance and since Ukraine has a better goal difference to start with, they have a slightly better chance to a back-door qualification.
Qualification probabilities:
Group D
ENG-CZE
Group win at stake. The loser might go into the goal difference comparison of third-place teams, but that would require England and Croatia winning, causing a tie between the Czechs and the Croatians or Scotland and Czechs winning, causing a tie between England and Scotland. And even then the third-place team is likely to succeed in qualifying, so >99% of both qualifying.
SCO-CRO (25-25-50)
Both of the teams need a win to have a chance of qualifying, but with four points the winner should be ok in the comparison. A draw kills both of the teams, so Croatia has a 50% chance and Scotland a 25% chance.
Qualification probabilities:
Group E
ESP-SVK (62-21-17)
Spain needs a win and Slovakia will qualify with a win or a draw. Even three points might be enough since the goal difference will be better than the third place finisher in group B.
SWE-POL (36-28-36)
Poland needs a win while Sweden is already very likely to qualify with four points. Poland with a 36% probability, Sweden with 99%.
Qualification probabilities:
Group F
GER-HUN (58-22-20)
Hungary needs to win to have a chance of qualifying. For Germany, a draw or a win means qualification, although a small loss might be enough also.
POR-FRA (30-25-45)
France with four points is almost surely through. For Portugal, a draw or a win makes them qualify also, however three points might not be enough.
Qualification probabilities:
Now
| Country | Winning probability at the start | Winning probability after first round | Winning probability now | Position changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEL | 20,39 | 20,78 | 21,76 | 0 |
| FRA | 15,09 | 17,44 | 16,83 | 0 |
| ENG | 8,84 | 9,67 | 10,00 | 0 |
| ITA | 6,28 | 7,52 | 7,56 | 0 |
| POR | 6,09 | 7,46 | 6,02 | 0 |
| SUI | 4,45 | 4,29 | 5,74 | +1 |
| SPA | 6,55 | 6,00 | 5,50 | -1 |
| GER | 4,24 | 2,93 | 5,06 | +3 |
| NED | 3,35 | 3,99 | 4,18 | -1 |
| WAL | 3,02 | 2,90 | 4,14 | +1 |
| CRO | 4,71 | 3,58 | 2,83 | -2 |
| SWE | 2,14 | 2,06 | 2,72 | +1 |
| DEN | 4,82 | 2,70 | 1,92 | -1 |
| UKR | 1,54 | 1,05 | 1,25 | +3 |
| AUT | 1,51 | 1,92 | 1,13 | -1 |
| POL | 2,12 | 1,16 | 1,08 | 0 |
| CZE | 0,57 | 0,83 | 0,96 | +2 |
| RUS | 0,56 | 0,37 | 0,47 | +4 |
| FIN | 0,31 | 0,57 | 0,33 | +2 |
| SCO | 0,56 | 0,27 | 0,24 | +2 |
| SVK | 0,90 | 1,33 | 0,20 | -6 |
| HUN | 0,46 | 0,23 | 0,08 | +2 |
| TUR | 1,31 | 0,86 | 0,00 | -5 |
| MKD | 0,18 | 0,09 | 0,00 | 0 |
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